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Economy  |  March 2, 2016  |  

•Accurately predicting a U.S. economic recession is tricky; nevertheless, a growing chorus of pundits are attempting to do it. An inverted yield curve, where the spread between the US Treasury 10 year and 2 year maturities becomes negative, possesses a track record of reliably predicting recessions. This graph highlights various points over the last 40 years when the yield curve has inverted (moved below 0 on the graph). Following these periods of inversion, US recession time periods are highlighted by gray columns. The current reading does not support a recession call.